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Weight of Evidence Approach to Maritime Accident Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Network Classifier

Ana Kuzmanić Skelin ; University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Split, Croatia
Lea Vojković ; University of Split, Faculty of Maritime Studies, Split, Croatia
Dani Mohović ; University of Rijeka, Faculty of Maritime Studies, Rijeka, Croatia
Damir Zec ; University of Rijeka, Faculty of Maritime Studies, Rijeka, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski pdf 3.129 Kb

str. 330-347

preuzimanja: 132



Probabilistic maritime accident models based on Bayesian Networks are typically built upon the data available in accident records and the data obtained from human experts knowledge on accident. The drawback of such models is that they do not take explicitly into the account the knowledge on non-accidents as would be required in the probabilistic modelling of rare events. Consequently, these models have difficulties with delivering interpretation of influence of risk factors and providing sufficient confidence in the risk assessment scores. In this work, modelling and risk score interpretation, as two aspects of the probabilistic approach to complex maritime system risk assessment, are addressed. First, the maritime accident modelling is posed as a classification problem and the Bayesian network classifier that discriminates between accident and non-accident is developed which assesses state spaces of influence factors as the input features of the classifier. Maritime accident risk are identified as adversely influencing factors that contribute to the accident. Next, the weight of evidence approach to reasoning with Bayesian network classifier is developed for an objective quantitative estimation of the strength of factor influence, and a weighted strength of evidence is introduced. Qualitative interpretation of strength of evidence for individual accident influencing factor, inspired by Bayes factor, is defined. The efficiency of the developed approach is demonstrated within the context of collision of small passenger vessels and the results of collision risk assessments are given for the environmental settings typical in Croatian nautical tourism. According to the results obtained, recommendations for navigation safety during high density traffic have been distilled.

Ključne riječi

Maritime collision model, Probabilistic modelling, Bayesian network classifier, Weight of evidence, Bayes factor, Probabilistic reasoning

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