Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2045207
Forecasts of growth in US durables spending: assessing the usefulness of disaggregated consumer survey data
Hamid Baghestani
Sažetak
This study aims to improve the accuracy of the Federal Reserve
forecasts of growth in durables spending using disaggregated
consumer survey data. Test results for 1988–2016 indicate that
these forecasts do (do not) contain past information in consumer
durables-buying (home-buying) attitudes of 35–54-year-old participants,
participants with a college degree, male participants, and
participants with the top 33% income. Using real-time data on
durables spending and information in consumer home-buying
attitudes and expectations, we construct a knowledge model (KM)
to generate comparable forecasts of growth in durables spending.
Our results indicate that the one- and four-quarter-ahead KM forecasts
can potentially help improve the accuracy of Federal
Reserve forecasts. Further results indicate that the one- and fourquarter-
ahead combined Federal Reserve and KM forecasts show
significant reductions in forecast errors, meaning that there are
accuracy gains from using disaggregated consumer survey data.
The practical implication is that forecasters should pay special
attention to consumer home-buying attitudes and expectations
about future business conditions, and policymakers should make
use of such survey measures in monitoring the economy in
real time.
Ključne riječi
Consumption; disaggregated data; directional accuracy; encompassing; forecast combination
Hrčak ID:
302963
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.3.2023.
Posjeta: 333 *