Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.13044/j.sdewes.d11.0481
Method to Model the Hourly Variability of Renewable Energy Sources in Integrated Assessment Models
Gonzalo Parrado-Hernando
; University of Valladolid, School of Industrial Engineering, Valladolid, Spain
Fernando Frechoso-Escudero
; University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
Luis Javier Miguel González
; University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
Sažetak
A decarbonized economy implies deep structural changes across industries, including the power system, whose operation needs to balance supply and demand instantaneously. The energy planning community usually work with hourly-resolution tools, while the integrated assessment community do so with the year as the time unit. This article describes a model that integrates both time frames to consider limitations and competition among suppliers of electricity in long-term scenarios, with Spain as the case of study. The calibration was carried out over four historical years (2017-2020, including the impact of Covid) to show both the sensitivity of different meteorological conditions and differences in the ranking of priorities to supply power. The results show values below Spain’s objective of 74% presence of renewables in the electricity mix in 2030; while this objective is reached by our own proposal.
Ključne riječi
Integrated assessment model; energy transition; policy; power system; Vensim; PNIEC; NECP.
Hrčak ID:
315386
URI
Datum izdavanja:
18.12.2024.
Posjeta: 284 *