Prethodno priopćenje
https://doi.org/10.22598/zefzg.2024.2.1
Analysis of the European Commission's forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for Croatia
Silvija Jerić Vlah
orcid.org/0000-0003-4738-6337
; Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, Zagreb, Hrvatska
*
Gabriela Kus
Davor Zoričić
* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
The paper analyses the quality of forecasts of Croatian GDP growth and inflation made by the European Commission in the period of 2005 – 2020. Forecast accuracy, bias and efficiency are examined. The findings show that forecast errors increase with the forecast horizon with little evidence of forecast bias. However, additional variables used for efficiency testing were all found to be significant at least on one of the analysed horizons for both GDP growth and inflation forecasts. The forecasters were not efficient in predicting GDP growth at any of the observed horizons. There is less evidence of inefficiency for inflation. It can be concluded that there is a potential for some general EU variables/indicators to be used for improving the country specific variable forecasts. The best improvement could be achieved using the window length for calculating the variables used as predictors similar to the forecast horizon.
Ključne riječi
macroeconomic variables; forecast accuracy; forecast bias; forecast efficiency
Hrčak ID:
327093
URI
Datum izdavanja:
20.1.2025.
Posjeta: 670 *