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https://doi.org/10.37798/2025741711

Empirical Assessment of Wind Power’s Capacity Credit: A European Case Study

Dubravko Sabolić orcid.org/0000-0002-7892-8701 ; Hrvatski operator prijenosnog sustava *
Igor Ivanković ; Hrvatski operator prijenosnog sustava

* Dopisni autor.

Sažetak

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the intrinsic capacity credit of onshore wind power across twelve European countries, based on hourly measured data for 2019 and 2024. Capacity credit was calculated as a function of acceptable default risk, under the simplifying assumption that wind power alone must satisfy total demand, serving as a limiting-case benchmark for adequacy assessment. The results show a wide range of outcomes across individual countries and highlight the effects of spatial aggregation, where the combined regional system performs better than its constituents. A nonlinear model was fitted to describe the relationship between capacity credit and risk probability. Additionally, several hypothetical spatial distributions of installed capacity were evaluated using statis-tical criteria, illustrating how coordination could affect adequacy outcomes. The analysis was based exclusively on observed data, without additional modeling assumptions, and the proposed method offers a transparent, generalizable framework for empirical adequacy benchmarking across generation types and planning contexts.

Ključne riječi

wind power; capacity credit; system adequacy; spatial distribution; empirical modeling

Hrčak ID:

338952

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/338952

Datum izdavanja:

1.3.2025.

Posjeta: 218 *