Stručni rad
https://doi.org/10.31299/ksi.34.1.4
Anticipated crime trends in Ukraine after the Russian-Ukrainian war: A comparative analysis of public expectations and expert forecasts
Oleg Novikov
orcid.org/0000-0002-2047-1665
; Academician Stashis Scientific Research Institute for the Study of Crime Problems of National Academy of Law Sciences of Ukraine, Department of Criminological Research
*
Yevheniia Poliakh
orcid.org/0009-0003-1169-5610
; Academician Stashis Scientific Research Institute for the Study of Crime Problems of National Academy of Law Sciences of Ukraine, Department of Criminological Research
Kateryna Kulyk
orcid.org/0000-0003-2986-5836
; Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University, Department of Criminal Law Policy
Valeriy Obolentsev
; Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University, Department of Criminal Law Policy
Svitlana Panova
; Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University, Department of Criminal Law Policy
* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
Large-scale wars often leave criminogenic legacies that can reshape crime patterns once hostilities cease. This article compares public expectations and expert forecasts of anticipated post-war crime trends in Ukraine during the first three years after achieving sustainable peace. Furthermore, it integrates population expectations and expert judgement within an empirical framework that enables the direct comparison of perceived trajectories and drivers. The study draws on two anonymous surveys conducted in 2025 and administered online via Google Forms: a population survey of the general public (N = 1,704), as well as an expert survey of criminal justice practitioners and scholars (N = 125). Responses were processed using descriptive statistics to compare data on overall crime levels, offence categories, and perceived drivers of change. Both groups of respondents expected higher levels of overall crime, although the public showed greater concern: 86.3% of lay respondents expected an increase in crime, compared to 76.8% of experts. In terms of offence type, the strongest convergence was observed in the violence and weapons category. Respondents reported high projected growth in violent crime (public 74.3%; experts 72.8%), domestic violence (public 73.7%; experts 85.6%), and firearm-related offences in civilian life (public 78.7%; experts 88.8%). Compared to the general public, experts strongly anticipate an increase in property offences (76.0% vs 50.7%) and hooliganism (70.4% vs 57.0%). Divergences between both groups of respondents emerged in several domains: public concern was higher for corruption-related offences (49.1% vs 36.0%), and cybercrime showed the sharpest split, with the public mostly expecting stability (63.4%) and experts forecasting an increase (53.6%). Perceived drivers of increased post-war crime include psychological trauma and increased weapon availability, along with an economic crisis, alcohol/drug abuse, and demobilisation: both groups of respondents also expect that former military personnel will be overrepresented among the offenders. The findings highlight domains of shared concern and disagreement, providing an empirical basis for the prioritisation of monitoring and future empirical research on Ukraine’s early post-war transition. The study also underlines a limitation of survey-based forecasting: these instruments can identify the direction of expected change, but they cannot reliably estimate its magnitude.
Ključne riječi
expert forecasts; post-conflict criminology; post-conflict transition; post-war crime; public perceptions
Hrčak ID:
348446
URI
Datum izdavanja:
29.6.2026.
Posjeta: 0 *