Prethodno priopćenje
Croatian Migration at the Beginning of the 21st Century
Ivan Lajić
; Institut za migracije i narodnosti, Zagreb, Hrvatska
Sažetak
Throughout the most recent time-period, all modalities of migration have existed, side-by-side, in Croatia, hence confirming a high degree of mobility of its population, and also indicating a wide range of factors causing migration. The scale of Croatian migration, the spatial distribution of the various sending areas, the demographic structure of the migrant contingent, and especially the negative migration balance on the national level, as well as on the level of the country’s main regions, are all indications of a negative effect on socio-economic and especially demographic development. At the same time, some forms of migration that have previously dominated – e.g. economic migration to the countries of Western Europe, seasonal internal migration and circulation of labour, rural-urban migration – are by now becoming phenomena of second-rate importance. Nevertheless, in the present migration constellation, migration still has a negative effect on the demographic development of Croatia. The internal demographic polarisation within Croatia, characterised by propulsive areas on the one hand, and an ever broader depopulational pole on the other, is increasing in relevance, since the vitality of demographic events (natural growth and a positive migration balance) is tied to large cities, which brings about a further problem, i.e. an asimetrical spatial development caused by the growing oligocentric significance of regional centres. The author estimates that natural growth of Croatia’s population in the inter-census period from 1991 to 2001 amounted to 45,000. If only that component would be taken into account, Croatia’s population should have fallen from 4,784,265 to 4,739,265. The population, however, fell to 4,437,460. Therefore, on the basis of such (in fact discrepant) criteria, 301,805 more persons left Croatia, than arrived through immigration in the same time-period. Two basic categories that have contributed to this loss are residents of Croatia that, according to the recommendations of international istitutes, are not registered as residents of settlements in the country, since they have been absent for more than twelve months. These categories are refugees and the contingent of persons employed abroad (and supported family members, living abroad with them). Another more recent category of labour migrants should be added, which could be, conditionally, labelled “the brain drain”. Although it is difficult to make comparisons, during the census of 1991 a total of 285,216 persons from Croatia were found to be employed abroad (or residing abroad as supported family members). This accounted for 6.0% of the total population of Croatia. If viewed today, the percentage of persons abroad in regard to the population residing in the country has fallen to 5.6%. This ratio does not include the population of refugees, which will certainly, at least in part, return to Croatia. If this group would have been incorporated in the category of persons abroad, the ratio would significantlybe different (although, during the official census, census-takers registered such persons as labour migrants and not as refugees). According to the author’s estimate, which is not a precise calculation (due to problems pertaining to methodological categories), in 2001 11.9% of Croatia’s population was living abroad.
Ključne riječi
forced migration; migration balance; refugees; expellees; clandestine migration; demographic losses; internal migration; external migration
Hrčak ID:
107364
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.9.2002.
Posjeta: 6.776 *