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Opinions About Those in Power as an Indicator of Party Preference and Voting Intention


Puni tekst: hrvatski pdf 398 Kb

str. 683-697

preuzimanja: 358



A study based on several opinion polls conducted
between the years 1993 and 1996, on a probabilistic
sample of the Croatian population, was an attempt to
determine to what extent the voting intention is
conditioned by specific opinions about those in power.
Earlier research indicated that, in Croatia, the
outcome of the election could only in part be
attributed to ideological factors. The discriminant
analysis which was carried out showed that, based
on the opinions about those in power, one can quite
accurately predict whether someone will vote for the
ruling party or one of the opposition parties, but not
which party will ultimately be elected. It was thus surmised
that voting choice is based on a twolevel decision
making process, the first level, in which the voters decide
between the ruling and oppostion parties, and the second
level, where those voters favouring the opposition decide
which party they will ultimately vote for, based on other

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