Pregledni rad
https://doi.org/10.46672/aet.12.1.6
THE IMPACT OF THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA’S MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION ON REDUCING THE SYMPTOMS OF DUTCH DISEASE
Sara Dragosavac
orcid.org/0009-0004-3721-3939
; Libertas međunarodno sveučilište
Sažetak
Croatia is among the European Union member states with a pronounced dependence on tourism, which increases the risk of the emergence of Dutch disease symptoms. Dutch disease arises as a consequence of strong growth in a particular economic sector that generates a significant inflow of foreign currency, leading to structural distortions such as appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, growth in real wages, weakening of industrial production, and increased unemployment. The aim of this paper was to examine the existence and intensity of Dutch disease symptoms in the Republic of Croatia and to analyze the role of European Union membership in mitigating them. The paper applies a combination of descriptive and regression analysis of macroeconomic and tourism indicators for the period from 2003 to 2023. The results of the empirical analysis show that, despite strong tourism growth and a significant inflow of foreign currency, no statistically significant relationship was confirmed between tourism activity and appreciation of the domestic currency, meaning that the classic exchange-rate mechanism of Dutch disease was not confirmed. On the other hand, real-sector indicators point to positive effects of European Union membership, particularly through statistically significant growth in industrial production, a reduction in unemployment, and growth in average net wages, suggesting mitigation of certain structural symptoms of Dutch disease. However, the analysis of inflation and GDP growth rates does not confirm the stabilizing effect of European Union membership, given that a statistically significant increase in inflation and a positive but statistically insignificant trend in economic growth were recorded. Although the Republic of Croatia does not exhibit all the symptoms of Dutch disease, there is a pronounced structural dependence on tourism, which increases the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and indicates the need for fiscal, monetary, and structural policies aimed at economic diversification, strengthening the industrial base, and investing in education, innovation, and human capital development.
Ključne riječi
Dutch disease, tourism, Croatia, European Union
Hrčak ID:
347546
URI
Datum izdavanja:
1.6.2026.
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