Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2026.1.2
Dynamic Optimisation and Scenario Analysis of the Romanian Public Pension System
Annamária Lőrincz
; Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, Faculty of Economics, Socio Human Sciences and Engineering
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* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
The literature on the sustainability of publicly financed pension systems predominantly focuses on long-term demographic and fiscal projections, while considerably less attention is devoted to the explicit identification of optimal policy solutions that jointly minimise economic and social costs. This paper addresses this gap by embedding pension policy decision making in a dynamic optimisation framework based on the Bellman equation, enabling the identification of economically and socially optimal policy paths. The study examines whether the long-term sustainability of the Romanian public pension system can be enhanced through optimally timed policy interventions while limiting economic and social burdens. The proposed model integrates demographic dynamics, labour market behaviour, and fiscal constraints within a unified analytical framework. It optimises seven key decision variables, including the retirement age of women and men, the social security contribution rate, the early retirement rate, the proportion of active pensioners, and the employment rate. Scenario simulations for the period 2024-2036 demonstrate that maintaining the current retirement age cannot be achieved optimally through contribution-rate adjustments alone. The results emphasise the crucial role of extending pensioners’ labour-market participation, which substantially reduces fiscal pressure and enhances long-term system sustainability. The methodology is adaptable to other national pension systems and supports integrated pension-policy design.
Ključne riječi
public pension systems; dynamic scenario analysis; optimisation; Romania; pension system policies
Hrčak ID:
348629
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.6.2026.
Posjeta: 0 *