Preliminary communication
https://doi.org/10.62366/crebss.2026.1.003
Employment expectations indicator in predicting changes in the Croatian labour market
Marija Mišir
; Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb, Croatia
Mirjana Čižmešija
orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-7291
; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia
*
* Corresponding author.
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to theoretically and methodologically analyse the prognostic properties of the Employment Expectations Indicator EEI in the context of predicting changes in the Croatian labour market, testing the hypothesis of the EEI as a leading indicator of short-term changes. Empirical research was conducted on secondary, seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of the European Commission and the Croatian Bureau of Statistics from January 2016 to December 2025. By applying the Granger causality test within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the time lag of the EEI effect was analysed, with a primary focus on forecasting the direction, rather than the intensity, of changes in the number of employees in a short period of two months. The modelling results indicate that the inclusion of the EEI variable, with a specification of up to and including two monthly lags, statistically significantly contributes to prognostic quality and improves prediction. Thus, the paper provides preliminary evidence of the predictive validity of this indicator and makes a scientific and applied contribution by designing a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic planning and economic policymaking.
Keywords
Business and consumer surveys; ARDL; Granger causality; employment expectations indicator; labour market
Hrčak ID:
348892
URI
Publication date:
6.7.2026.
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