Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.17234/RadoviZHP.57.14 419
Migration as a Factor Delaying Demographic Transition: The Case of Zagreb at the End of the 19th Century (Summary)
Toni Ćosić
; Hrvatsko katoličko sveučilište
Abstract
The theory of demographic transition is a widely accepted model that describes sequential changes in population dynamics driven by industrialization and modernization. While traditional theory, based on the experiences of the industrially developed Western European core, views migration positively as a catalyst for this transition, this study questions the universal validity of that premise. In the European periphery, which includes historical Croatian territories, the processes of urbanization and modernization outpaced industrialization. Consequently, rural migrants moved into cities that lacked the industrial capacity to absorb them, often living in substandard housing conditions in suburban slums.
This paper hypothesizes that in the context of delayed industrialization, the constant influx of a rural migrant population delayed the onset of the demographic transition. This premise is tested using the city of Zagreb in the late 19th century (1877–1900) as a case study, as it was the largest and fastest-growing demographic and industrial center in Croatia and Slavonia at the time.
The research focuses on the mortality transition, which represented the initial phase of the demographic transition in this region, defined as the permanent decline of mortality rates below 30‰. To establish the timing of this transition, the study analyzes population counts from official censuses (1869, 1880, 1890, and 1900) and uses linear interpolation to estimate the population for intercensal years.
Given the inconsistencies in church parish registers, the primary sources for vital statistics were the official “Reports of the City Magistracy” (Izvješća Gradskog poglavarstva), which provided detailed data on mortality by age, sex, cause of death, and socio-economic status. Crucially, these reports classified the population into “domestic” (domaći) and “foreign/immigrant” (strani) residents based on their legal right of residence (zavičajnost), allowing for a comparative analysis between the native-born population and recent arrivals. The analysis indicates that overall mortality rates in Zagreb fluctuated considerably but remained predominantly above 30‰ until the late 1890s. The rates permanently dropped below this threshold from 1897, marking the official onset of the mortality transition in the city.
A comparative analysis revealed significant differences in the mortality patterns of the domestic and immigrant populations. During the critical intercensal period (1890–1900), the correlation coefficient of mortality between the two groups was merely 0.12, with a coefficient of determination of 0.01. This indicates that only 1% of the mortality variance was shared, suggesting that distinctly different socio-economic factors influenced the mortality of each group.
While infectious diseases, primarily tuberculosis, were the dominant cause of death for both groups, the immigrant population suffered disproportionately. Between 1887 and 1896, the proportion of deaths caused by tuberculosis was nearly 50% higher among the immigrant population than among the domestic population.
The socio-economic status of the deceased also highlighted structural differences, particularly from 1897 onwards. A significantly larger proportion of the immigrant deceased belonged to categories such as day laborers and lower-tier workers than was the case among the native population, underscoring their poorer living conditions.
The overall mortality rate of Zagreb in the late 19th century was heavily shaped by the specific socio-economic disadvantages of its immigrant population. The intense and continuous immigration of rural populations into the city artificially inflated overall mortality rates, primarily due to their heightened vulnerability to infectious diseases like tuberculosis. Therefore, the study concludes that migration, in the context of the European periphery acted, as a decelerating factor; without this substantial influx of immigrants, the mortality transition in Zagreb would have commenced significantly earlier.
Keywords
Zagreb in the 19th century; demographic transition; mortality transition; migra¬tion; urbanization; modernization; European periphery; socio-economic factors
Hrčak ID:
352382
URI
Publication date:
21.12.2025.
Visits: 0 *