Conference paper

EXCHANGE RATE AND PUBLIC DEBT IN CENTRAL EUROPE

Imre Vámos ; Óbuda University Department of Finance, Hungary

Abstract

In the present paper – following a preceding investigation in 2012 – I investigate the way the most important macroeconomic and economic policy factors have influenced the equilibrium exchange rate of the Central and South Eastern European currencies in the last decade. I am endeavouring to compare the price fluctuations of foreign exchange markets in the eurozone and 15 emerging economies. I take advantage of the concept and methodology of fundamental and behavioural exchange rates theory. I examine in a panel regression framework how productivity, interest rate differentials and monetary variables affect nominal and real exchange rates and then compare the result with individual countries' analysis based on the methodological guidance offered by ECB (2004). Empirical tests suggest that higher than average public debt largely influences the market value judgement of currencies and explain long run tendencies. I also point out that emerging markets' data raise a lot of methodological problems.

Keywords

nominal and real exchange rates; public debt

Hrčak ID:

161444

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/161444

Publication date:

27.9.2013.

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