Conference paper
PUBLIC DEBT IN THE CEECS: IS THE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS OVER?
Zsuzsanna Novák
; Magyar Nemzeti Bank Monetary policy instruments, foreign exchange reserves and risk management, Hungary
Abstract
The paper investigates how the global financial and the ensuing European sovereign crisis affected the public debt dynamics of the EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which countries are generally facing difficulties in keeping fiscal discipline as a negative consequence of global and regional financial turbulences. It reveals how economic factors (real GDP growth, interest rates, primary deficit) affected the trend of public debt in the period after 2008 among new EU members on the basis of Eurostat and European Economy statistics. After the briefing of some relevant government debt theories (among others Marcet and Scott, 2003, Díaz-Giménez and Giovanetti, 2007, Garcia et al., 2011, Broner et al., 2014), the paper provides a descriptive analysis of the debt structure of eight Central and Eastern European countries in recent years. It compares the currency composition of the governments’ liabilities, discusses the role the domestic public sector plays in financing public debt, and whether there is evidence of domestic financing crowding out private investment in these countries. In the light of CDS premia and reference yields financing costs are contrasted and the way debt management strategies are formulated and government debt instruments are chosen in order to mitigate the financial burden caused by government indebtedness are compared. Finally, the paper summarises the lessons of the Hungarian self-financing programme launched in April 2014 by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
Keywords
public debt structure and dynamics; CDS premia
Hrčak ID:
161670
URI
Publication date:
1.10.2015.
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