Original scientific paper

Gaussian limit theorem for posterior distribution in the problem of conflicting expert opinions

Ksenia Kasianova ; Faculty of Economic Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Mark Kelbert

Abstract

Suppose we have $n$ experts who have their prior opinion about the unknown probability $q$ in the experiment with a binary outcome. It is known that experts' opinions are in conflict with each other. To model "conflicting" experts' opinions a prior distribution based on Selberg's integral is constructed. We prove a theorem regarding the limiting properties of the posterior distribution. Also, differential entropy and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of such posterior are studied.

Keywords

Differential entropy; Gaussian limiting theorem; Kullback-Leibler divergence; Selberg's integral; Multivariate Selberg Beta distribution; Expert elicitation

Hrčak ID:

308961

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/308961

Publication date:

22.10.2023.

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