Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.20901/pm.63.2.01
Is Belief in Conspiracy Theories Stable or Moody? Evidence from Panel Data in Croatia*
Nebojša Blanuša
; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Political Science
Bartul Vuksan-Ćusa
orcid.org/0000-0002-5158-9164
; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Political Science
Abstract
Research on conspiratorial thinking (CT) has grown in both breadth and scope in recent years, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet a key lacuna remains, as evidence on the temporal stability of CT is still limited. We address this gap using a four-wave panel survey in Croatia conducted between2022 and 2025 to assess CT stability at the between-person and within-person levels. To place CT on a broader stability spectrum, we benchmark it against core political attitudes, including ideology, political interest, trust in government, and external political efficacy. Results show that CT displays strong rank order persistence and only modest aggregate change, placing it alongside other trait-like constructs. At the same time, within-person dynamics are not absent, since a meaningful share of the respondents shift their stance across waves, indicating variability beneath high between-person stability. Exploratory profiling further suggests that baseline TikTok use distinguishes respondents who change their CT position over time from those who remain stable. Overall, CT appears highly stable but not immovable, highlighting the need for further research on when and why shifts occur and whether they generalize across contexts
Keywords
Conspiracism; Conspiracy Theories; Panel Data; Political Attitudes; Attitude Stability
Hrčak ID:
349708
URI
Publication date:
24.7.2026.
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