Croatian Economic Survey, No. 5, 2003.
Original scientific paper
INFLATIONARY DYNAMICS OF A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CROATIAN EXPERIENCE
James E. Payne
Abstract
This paper undertakes an exploratory analysis of the inflationary dynamics within the Croatian economy over the period January 1992 - December 1999. Recognizing the structural break in the inflationary process corresponding to the anti-inflationary stabilization program of October 1993, the analysis proceeds by estimating an augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model of the log first-differences for the broad money supply, retail price index (RPI), nominal net wage per employee, and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEX) along with evaluating generalized forecast error variance decompositions to infer the empirical relationship among the four variables. The results show that inflation is positively related to wage growth and currency depreciation. Interestingly enough, lagged values of inflation are insignificant suggesting the absence of inflation inertia. Moreover, there appears to be feedback from wage growth, currency depreciation along with past money growth to current money growth. Wage growth is influenced by past wage growth and currency depreciation. Finally, currency depreciation is affected by money growth and past currency depreciations.
Keywords
Hrčak ID:
6346
URI
Publication date:
15.4.2003.
Visits: 1.410 *