Original scientific paper

Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia

Lado Kutnar orcid.org/0000-0001-9785-1263 ; Slovenian Forestry Institute, Department of Forest Ecology, Večna pot 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Andrej Kobler ; lovenian Forestry Institute, Department of Forest and Landscape Planning and Monitoring, Večna pot 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

Abstract

By using an empirical GIS model, the potential spatial chan­ges of forest vegetation driven by expected climate change have been analy­sed. Based on the three different scenarios predicting climate warming in Slovenia (the mean, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios), the simulation sho­wed that the share of vegetation types will be altered under the impacts of cli­mate change, and the shift of vegetation belts upwards might be expected.
By the year 2100, the share of mesic beech forests is likely to decrease. From ecological, – nature-conservation – and forest-management points of view, the predicted decrease of the share of Dinaric fir-beech forests is espe­cially important. The model predicts an increase of the share of thermophilous forests from the present 14% to a range between 50% (according to the optimi­stic scenario) and 87% (according to the pessimistic scenario). A significant part of the coniferous forest with Picea abiesand Abies alba predominating might be converted to deciduous forests.

Keywords

climate change; climate scenarios; forest vegetation; model; simulation

Hrčak ID:

67619

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619

Publication date:

30.4.2011.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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