hrcak mascot   Srce   HID

Izvorni znanstveni članak

Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia

Lado Kutnar   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0001-9785-1263 ; Slovenian Forestry Institute, Department of Forest Ecology, Večna pot 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Andrej Kobler ; lovenian Forestry Institute, Department of Forest and Landscape Planning and Monitoring, Večna pot 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (516 KB) str. 113-125 preuzimanja: 442* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Kutnar, L. i Kobler, A. (2011). Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia. Šumarski list, 135 (3-4), 113-125. Preuzeto s https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619
MLA 8th Edition
Kutnar, Lado i Andrej Kobler. "Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia." Šumarski list, vol. 135, br. 3-4, 2011, str. 113-125. https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619. Citirano 09.08.2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
Kutnar, Lado i Andrej Kobler. "Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia." Šumarski list 135, br. 3-4 (2011): 113-125. https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619
Harvard
Kutnar, L., i Kobler, A. (2011). 'Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia', Šumarski list, 135(3-4), str. 113-125. Preuzeto s: https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619 (Datum pristupa: 09.08.2020.)
Vancouver
Kutnar L, Kobler A. Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia. Šumarski list [Internet]. 2011 [pristupljeno 09.08.2020.];135(3-4):113-125. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619
IEEE
L. Kutnar i A. Kobler, "Prediction of Forest Vegetation Shift due to Different Climate-Change Scenarios in Slovenia", Šumarski list, vol.135, br. 3-4, str. 113-125, 2011. [Online]. Dostupno na: https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619. [Citirano: 09.08.2020.]

Sažetak
By using an empirical GIS model, the potential spatial chan­ges of forest vegetation driven by expected climate change have been analy­sed. Based on the three different scenarios predicting climate warming in Slovenia (the mean, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios), the simulation sho­wed that the share of vegetation types will be altered under the impacts of cli­mate change, and the shift of vegetation belts upwards might be expected.
By the year 2100, the share of mesic beech forests is likely to decrease. From ecological, – nature-conservation – and forest-management points of view, the predicted decrease of the share of Dinaric fir-beech forests is espe­cially important. The model predicts an increase of the share of thermophilous forests from the present 14% to a range between 50% (according to the optimi­stic scenario) and 87% (according to the pessimistic scenario). A significant part of the coniferous forest with Picea abiesand Abies alba predominating might be converted to deciduous forests.

Ključne riječi
climate change; climate scenarios; forest vegetation; model; simulation

Hrčak ID: 67619

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/67619

[hrvatski]

Posjeta: 1.133 *