Preliminary communication

https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2019.2.759

Persistence of shocks in CDS returns on Croatian bonds: Quantile autoregression approach

Mile Bošnjak orcid.org/0000-0002-7663-198X ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business
Ivan Novak orcid.org/0000-0003-1473-7049 ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business
Maja Bašić orcid.org/0000-0002-1842-7091 ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business

Abstract

The paper aims to examine persistence of shocks in returns on CDS for 5Y Croatian bonds. Based on sample of daily data from January 6, 2004 up until December 13, 2019 the paper evaluated research hypothesis that assumed persistence of shocks in returns on 5Y Croatian bond. To evaluate the research hypothesis, the paper employed quantile autoregression approach and nonparametric time varying autoregreession approach. The empirical results rejected the research hypothesis assuming persistence of shocks in returns on CDS for 5Y Croatian bonds. Based on the results from this paper, returns on CDS from for 5Y Croatian bonds are in line with efficient market hypothesis for endogenous shocks of small magnitude and at the highest level of endogenous shocks. Furthermore, efficient market hypothesis holds during the calm periods, while during the periods with more dynamics in CDS prices the paper suggests profitable strategy for trader and investors. Eventually, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion regarding efficient market hypothesis while revealing the case of returns on CDS for 5Y Croatian bonds. Furthermore, the paper suggests trading and investment strategies for investors.

Keywords

CDS returns; bonds; quantile autoregression; persistence of shocks; efficient market hypothesis

Hrčak ID:

231226

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/231226

Publication date:

27.12.2019.

Article data in other languages: croatian

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