Croatology, Vol. 14 No. 1, 2023.
Review article
https://doi.org/10.59323/k.14.1.5
Contemporary Demographic Processes as a Condition of (Un)sustainability of the Pension System of the Republic of Croatia
Monika Balija
orcid.org/0000-0001-7350-2798
; Faculty of Croatian Studies, University of Zagreb
Abstract
Analytical procedures in the paper show that the demographic trends and indicators of the Republic of Croatia have for decades conditioned the uncerta-
in sustainability of national systems that depend on the age structure of the population, and the results of the 2021 census confirmed all the negative aspects of contemporary demographic processes that were indicated by the natural and spatial trends of the population of the Republic of Croatia in the last intercensal period. The unfavorable condition of the Croatian pension system is primarily a consequence of the demographic aging of the Republic of Croatia which began in the 1960s, and has significantly intensified in recent decades. The decreasing volume of the inflow of the young generation into the working age and the increasing volume of the outflow of the population from the working age determined by the analysis suggest that the sustainability of the pension system of the Republic of Croatia is extremely questionable. In addition to the demographic aging and age composition of the population of the Republic of Croatia, other relevant demographic indicators that determine the condition of the pension system; such as the aging index, the total fertility rate and life expectancy, are also significantly unfavorable. All the aforementioned indicators caused numerous disadvantages in the pension system, most clearly shown by the falling system dependency ratio, from 1:4.04 in 1980 to 1:1.28 in 2021. The ratio of the average pension in the average monthly net salary paid is also unfavorable (36.4%), i.e. significantly lower than the optimal replacement ratio of 70%, and increases the risk of poverty in old age. The continuation of unfavorable indicators of the natural and spatial movement, along with the absence of population policy measures that would alleviate or change the unfavorable trends, the aging of the population in the coming decades will additionally adversely affect the system dependency ratio, financial condition and sustainability of the pension system, and the crisis of the pension system of the Republic of Croatia.
Keywords
population aging; Republic of Croatia; pension system; sustainability; system dependency ratio
Hrčak ID:
306403
URI
Publication date:
1.7.2023.
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