Original scientific paper
Application of the Method of Telephone Surveys in Researching Voting Intentions at the Croatian Presidentiai Elections in the Year 2000: Case-Study
Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC
; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb
Ivan RIMAC
; Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb
Abstract
ln this work the authors present the findings of the
validation analysis of results concerning voting intentions
at the 2000 presidentiai elections, gathered in two
separate telephone surveys on the eve of the first election
round and run-off. Based on the results of the analysis a
general prognostic validity of the research was established
in relation to the official electoral results and so was the
influence of certain modalities of gathering and processing
data on the validity of the results obtained. The results
indicate that, in our current circumstances, the main
issue of the validity of pre-election telephone surveysis
connected with a relatively large proportion of
noncommitment regarding voting intentions (in the
research analysed it was 29.8 or 25.6%), thus making it
necessaryto correct the original results through different
reduction procedures. Therefore, correcting results in two
steps has proven the most suitable method, based on
additional questions on inclinations towards certain
electoral options (this procedure has, in both electoral
situations analysed, considerably improved the precision
of results and reduced a certain partiality in their main
distribution), while proportional conversion by simple
elimination of non-committed examinees, has not given
satisfactory effects. In the data-gathering procedure, repeated attempts regarding the currently unavailable
examinees have contributed to the overall precison of the
research, while the differences in the distribution of results
according to daily time intervals, have, in this case, not
appeared statistically significant.
Keywords
Hrčak ID:
31549
URI
Publication date:
31.10.2000.
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