Professional paper
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WET AND DRY SPELLS IN CROATIA BY THE BINARY DARMA (1,1) MODEL
Ksenija Cindrić
orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-3021
; Meteorological and Hydrological Service Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Abstract
In this work the Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average Model (DARMA(1,1)) has been used to describe the wet-dry day sequences in Croatia. The dryness or wetness of a time period (e.g. a month) can be determined using daily precipitation data. Nevertheless, in some cases these estimates may give a wrong impression, and therefore monitoring the number of wet and dry days is important as well. The First-order Markov Chain (DAR(1)) has also been used and compared to DARMA(1,1) results. The daily precipitation data from the Split-Marjan, Rijeka, Zagreb-Grič and Osijek meteorological stations during the 1948Σ2000 period have been used. The importance of the autocorrelation coefficient as a measure of persistence has been emphasized.
Keywords
wet and dry spells; DARMA (1,1) model; DAR (1) model; coefficient of persistency
Hrčak ID:
64349
URI
Publication date:
14.12.2006.
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