Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.5559/di.22.1.01
PRICE SENTIMENT OF CROATIAN CONSUMERS: THE UPWARD BIAS OF COLLECTIVE MEMORIES
Petar SORIĆ
orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-264X
; Ekonomski fakultet, Zagreb
Mirjana ČIŽMEŠIJA
; Ekonomski fakultet, Zagreb
Sažetak
This paper touches upon the differences between inflation
perceptions and expectations of different socio-demographic
groups (with respect to age, gender, income and education),
a topic that has not so far been adequately represented in
Croatia. The analysis is based on a unique dataset obtained
from Consumer Surveys (conducted by the Croatian National
Bank). Indicators of perceived and expected inflation are
estimated in two separate ways: as direct responses of
individual consumers and as the balances of responses to
the questions about the perceived and anticipated inflation
rates. Both observed measures reveal significant differences
in the inflation sentiment between the well-off and the socio-
-economically disadvantaged consumers. The divergence is
particularly pronounced with respect to household income,
while the differences between male and female respondents
are negligible. Psychological explanations of these
differences are found in behavioural heuristics. The
availability heuristic is proven to be valid through the
phenomenon that older people (who have dealt with several
hyperinflation episodes in their adult life) produce
significantly higher inflation sentiment. The associativeness
heuristic also performs well, having in mind that Croatians
obviously relate today's rising economic uncertainty with
hyperinflation (as in the early 1990s), opposing both real
economic trends and economic theory.
Ključne riječi
inflation perceptions and expectations; heuristics; consumer sentiment
Hrčak ID:
101003
URI
Datum izdavanja:
1.3.2013.
Posjeta: 3.140 *