Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5513/JCEA01/27.2.4947
Towards improved forecasting of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) outbreaks through climate-based indicators
Plamen IVANOV
; Department of Orchard Management and Plant Protection, Fruit Growing Institute, Ostromila 12 str, Plovdiv, Agricultural Academy – Sofia, Bulgaria
*
Penka FILYOVA
; Department of Breeding and Genetic Resources, Fruit Growing Institute, Ostromila 12 str, Plovdiv, Agricultural Academy – Sofia, Bulgaria
* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
Rhagoletis cerasi poses a significant threat to cherry production across Europe, presenting a substantial challenge to agricultural practitioners. This study aims to enhance the techniques used for predicting seasonal pest invasions by focusing on climate factors, specifically air humidity. A comprehensive range of analytical techniques, including linear, multiple, and logistic regression, was employed to investigate the relationship between climatic variables and the incidence of substantial pest captures (defined as more than ten individuals per day). The results of the study indicated that when atmospheric humidity exceeds 70%, it is the predominant predictor of elevated R. cerasi activity (β=10.80, P=0.0302). Notably, while temperature appeared to constrain pest activity, precipitation did not demonstrate a statistically significant impact. The predictive models achieved an average explanatory power (R²=0.41), and visual analyses supported the finding that increased flight activity correlates with higher humidity levels. This research emphasizes the crucial role of microclimatic factors, including humidity, in refining pest monitoring and management strategies. Consequently, these findings may improve predictions and mitigate economic losses in fruit agriculture. There is optimism that the insights gained will lead to more effective solutions and a prosperous future for cherry growers across Europe.
Ključne riječi
Rhagoletis cerasi; humidity; population dynamics; economic threshold; forecast model; plant protection
Hrčak ID:
348658
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.6.2026.
Posjeta: 0 *