Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.32728/er-ei.39.1.7
INTEGRATING BEHAVIORAL AND ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE ON INFLATION PERCEPTION ACROSS DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS IN CROATIA
Marinko Škare
; Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirkovic”
*
Dajana Cvek
; Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirkovic”
* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
Understanding inflation perception is crucial for effective monetary policy, yet demographic heterogeneity in such perceptions remains underexplored. Here, we combine a cross-sectional survey of 265 Croatian adults with fractional integration analysis of 327 monthly observations of five price indices (1998–2025) to examine demographic differences and the persistence of inflation shocks. Our findings reveal strong and systematic age-related differences in inflation perception, with older individuals exhibiting heightened sensitivity (11 of 13 dimensions significant, Kruskal– Wallis p<0.01), while gender differences are limited (men reported modestly higher acceptance of inflation-related adjustments on 3 of 13 dimensions) and education differences are negligible (1 of 13 dimensions). Estimated on inflation rates (rather than price levels), Croatian inflation exhibits genuine stationary long memory (consensus fractional-integration parameter d ≈ 0.13–0.33), consistent with persistent but meanreverting shocks. We introduce an exploratory Consistency Index that compares survey perceptions with econometric persistence; because perception scores are high and relatively uniform across groups, the index has limited discriminatory power in this sample and requires independent validation. These patterns are consistent with a case for targeted central bank communication and financial education tailored to demographic profiles, although the evidence remains exploratory. The integrated behavioral-econometric approach offers a way of empirically grounding behavioral theories in macroeconomic persistence. Findings from this constrained convenience sample should be interpreted as exploratory rather than population-representative.
Ključne riječi
inflation perception; long memory; fractional integration; demographic differences; behavioral economics
Hrčak ID:
350520
URI
Datum izdavanja:
3.9.2026.
Posjeta: 0 *