Tehnički vjesnik, Vol. 33 No. 6, 2026.
Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20251129003172
Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Networks under Sudden Natural Disasters
Meng Fei
; School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, #3 Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing, China
Pu Li
; Logistics School, Beijing Wuzi University, #321 Fuhe Street, Tongzhou District, Beijing, China
*
Youhua Chen
; Business School, Jiangsu Normal University, #101, Shanghai Road, Tongshan District, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China
Mai Zhang
; Logistics School, Beijing Wuzi University, #321 Fuhe Street, Tongzhou District, Beijing, China
* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
Natural disasters are occurring with increasing frequency in urban areas, particularly severe flooding triggered by heavy rainfall. This study addresses the critical need to enhance the resilience of agricultural product logistics networks in response to sudden natural disasters. Taking Beijing as a case study, this research collects data on 170 cold chain distribution centers and 85 disaster-prone points through field surveys with government agencies and enterprises. Adopting a research framework of "spatial feature analysis - network correlation identification - vulnerability assessment", the study employs kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse, average nearest neighbor, and Moran's I indices to reveal spatial patterns. An improved gravity model incorporating disaster risk weights and cold storage capacity constraints is used to assess supply-demand matching vulnerability. The analysis reveals a "dual agglomeration" spatial pattern of cold chain facilities and disaster-prone points. The spatial correlation analysis quantifies the relationship characteristics between these node types. The vulnerability assessment identifies a structural imbalance of "resilience redundancy in core areas and insufficient resilience in peripheral areas". The findings provide data support for disaster resistance and efficiency optimization of cold chain logistics networks in mega-cities, and offer methodological insights for supply chain governance under disaster scenarios in similar regions.
Ključne riječi
agricultural cold chain logistics; gravity model; logistics network; natural disasters; spatial analysis; vulnerability assessment
Hrčak ID:
353086
URI
Datum izdavanja:
7.11.2026.
Posjeta: 0 *