Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2018.2.559
Are unemployment rates stationary for SEE10 countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear dynamics
Saša Obradović
orcid.org/0000-0001-9918-7271
; University of Kragujevac - Faculty of Economics, Kragujevac, Serbia
Lela Ristić
orcid.org/0000-0002-4590-8261
; University of Kragujevac - Faculty of Economics, Kragujevac, Serbia
Nemanja Lojanica
orcid.org/0000-0003-1460-8466
; University of Kragujevac - Faculty of Economics, Kragujevac, Serbia
Sažetak
This article aims to answer the questions concerning the dynamics of unemployment rates, including whether there is a subsequent hysteresis in the selected sample of ten countries of the South East Europe. The linear and nonlinear tests have been used to determine the stationarity of unemployment rates. The findings show that in eight out of ten countries, unemployment is a stationary process which implies that the hysteresis hypothesis has not been confirmed. The unemployment rates in Albania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Greece, Montenegro and Turkey manifest mean reverting behaviour. The movements of unemployment rates in the next period can be forecasted with a relatively high degree of certainty in terms of the mentioned countries. The unemployment in FYR Macedonia and Serbia is a non-stationary process. The results further emphasize the importance of allowing asymmetric adjustment and structural breaks, especially in the case of Romania, Montenegro and Turkey.
Ključne riječi
hysteresis; unemployment rate; non-linearity; stationarity and unit root
Hrčak ID:
213577
URI
Datum izdavanja:
28.12.2018.
Posjeta: 1.716 *