Pregledni rad
TERRORISM AS A THREAT TO ECONOMIC GROWTH – A MYTH OR A REALITY?
Ivan Mintas
; Ministarstvo vanjskih i europskih poslova Republike Hrvatske
Sažetak
It is not possible to give an unambiguous answer to the question whether and to what extent terrorism influences the economic growth. Although the direct costs of terrorism associated with asset destruction are most noticeable, they can often be outweighed by indirect costs. In this context, depending on the characteristics of the affected country, terrorism may or may not have a significant impact on its economy. When the negative impact of terrorism on the economy was established, the analyzed studies mostly indicated a limited, but often statistically significant, macroeconomic consequences. These consequences were more pronounced at the local level, but the effects of terrorism were often not strong enough to lead to greater and/or more lasting effects on the total GDP of a country. This conclusion is valid for most countries, although the impact of terrorism on economic growth is considerably weaker and sometimes non-existent in larger and more economically developed countries with higher income. On the other hand, the effects of terrorism are more pronounced if we focus only to certain economic sectors, primarily to those that do not depend solely on economic laws, but also on consumer psychology, such as tourism. These consequences may be particularly pronounced in developing countries, especially if there is also political instability, where tourism makes a big share of GDP and where a sudden decline in tourist arrivals and tourism revenues can greatly affect the overall economic growth of a country. However, in spite of the relatively high vulnerability of tourism to the phenomenon of terrorism, studies have mostly shown that this industry is recovering fairly quickly and that the effects of terrorism are not long-lasting provided terrorist campaign is not continuous or long-term. Therefore, to the question of whether terrorism affects the economic growth of a country, it could be shortly replied: yes, it probably affects it negatively, but the effect is situationally and temporally conditioned. Whether this effect will be statistically significant depends on a whole series of factors, most important of which is the gravity and persistence of terrorist acts or terrorist campaigns, the social, political and economic structure of the affected country, its income level and its dependence on the sectors more vulnerable to the effects of terrorism. Furthermore, the consequences that a particular state and society suffer from terrorism is often subjective and difficult to quantify objectively solely in mathematical and economic categories.
Ključne riječi
terrorism; macroeconomics; GDP; tourism; foreign direct investments; trade; consumption
Hrčak ID:
218936
URI
Datum izdavanja:
28.12.2018.
Posjeta: 2.117 *