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https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718

Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia

Daniel Tomić ; Faculty of Economics and Tourism "Dr. Mijo Mirković", Juraj Dobrila University, Pula, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (2 MB) str. 2212-2230 preuzimanja: 44* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Tomić, D. (2019). Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia. Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 32 (1), 2212-2230. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718
MLA 8th Edition
Tomić, Daniel. "Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia." Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, vol. 32, br. 1, 2019, str. 2212-2230. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718. Citirano 30.03.2020.
Chicago 17th Edition
Tomić, Daniel. "Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia." Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja 32, br. 1 (2019): 2212-2230. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718
Harvard
Tomić, D. (2019). 'Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia', Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, 32(1), str. 2212-2230. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718
Vancouver
Tomić D. Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia. Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja [Internet]. 2019 [pristupljeno 30.03.2020.];32(1):2212-2230. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718
IEEE
D. Tomić, "Empirical evidence of an S-curve in Croatia", Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, vol.32, br. 1, str. 2212-2230, 2019. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1645718

Sažetak
The impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance is still an empirically unanswered question within international and financial economics. This paper is pointed towards partial clarification of that question as the author analyses trade perspectives in Croatia through the concept of an S-curve. The S-curve is an extension of the J-curve, for the impact of exchange rate depreciation wears out after a while and there is no further improvement when all impacts are realised, meaning that at the top of the curve the slope is zero or negative. By focusing on the relationship between the terms of trade (exchange rate) and trade balance the author is trying to provide some new insights into trade dynamics over a business cycle in Croatia. The main result is that both unconditional and conditional relations (conditional to technology’s role identified in the vector error correction model) are consistent with the empirical S-curve pattern of cross-correlations between the trade balance and the terms of trade (exchange rate). Nonetheless, the inability of the S-curve to depict the strength and/or the speed of the adjustment process before and after the terms of trade/exchange rate depreciation explains its limitation within policy recommendations for Croatia.

Ključne riječi
Exchange rate; terms of trade; balance of trade; S-curve; business cycle; Croatia

Hrčak ID: 229537

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/229537

Posjeta: 70 *