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https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2

Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models

Tea Baldigara   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0003-2563-2533 ; Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Opatija, Croatia
Maja Mamula   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0001-6989-045X ; Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Opatija, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (453 KB) str. 19-31 preuzimanja: 860* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Baldigara, T. i Mamula, M. (2015). Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models. Tourism and hospitality management, 21 (1), 19-31. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2
MLA 8th Edition
Baldigara, Tea i Maja Mamula. "Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models." Tourism and hospitality management, vol. 21, br. 1, 2015, str. 19-31. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2. Citirano 27.10.2021.
Chicago 17th Edition
Baldigara, Tea i Maja Mamula. "Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models." Tourism and hospitality management 21, br. 1 (2015): 19-31. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2
Harvard
Baldigara, T., i Mamula, M. (2015). 'Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models', Tourism and hospitality management, 21(1), str. 19-31. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2
Vancouver
Baldigara T, Mamula M. Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models. Tourism and hospitality management [Internet]. 2015 [pristupljeno 27.10.2021.];21(1):19-31. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2
IEEE
T. Baldigara i M. Mamula, "Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models", Tourism and hospitality management, vol.21, br. 1, str. 19-31, 2015. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2

Sažetak
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving
average model able to capture and explain the patterns and the determinants of German tourism
demand in Croatia.
Design – The present study is based on the Box-Jenkins approach in building a seasonal
autoregressive integrated moving average model intend to describe the behaviour of the German
tourists’ flows to Croatia.
Approach – The proposed model is a seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,3)4 model.
Findings – The diagnostic checking and the performed tests showed that the estimated seasonal
ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,3)4 model is adequate in modelling and analysing the number of German
tourists ‘arrivals to Croatia.
Originality of the paper – This study provides a seasonal ARIMA model helpful to analyse,
understand and forecast German tourists’ flows to Croatia. Such, more detailed and systematic
studies should be considered as starting points of future macroeconomic development strategies,
pricing strategies and tourism sector routing strategies in Croatia, as a predominantly tourism
oriented country.

Ključne riječi
international tourism demand; econometric modelling; seasonal ARIMA models; forecasting; forecasting accuracy

Hrčak ID: 140166

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/140166

Posjeta: 1.550 *