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Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Vol.3 No.1 Lipanj 2017.

Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002

The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia

Mirjana Čižmešija   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-7291 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Petar Sorić   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-264X ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Ivana Lolić   ORCID icon orcid.org/0000-0003-3112-7699 ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski, pdf (452 KB) str. 16-34 preuzimanja: 70* citiraj
APA 6th Edition
Čižmešija, M., Sorić, P. i Lolić, I. (2017). The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia. Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, 3 (1), 16-34. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002
MLA 8th Edition
Čižmešija, Mirjana, et al. "The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia." Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, vol. 3, br. 1, 2017, str. 16-34. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002. Citirano 15.12.2018.
Chicago 17th Edition
Čižmešija, Mirjana, Petar Sorić i Ivana Lolić. "The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia." Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics 3, br. 1 (2017): 16-34. https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002
Harvard
Čižmešija, M., Sorić, P., i Lolić, I. (2017). 'The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia', Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, 3(1), str. 16-34. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002
Vancouver
Čižmešija M, Sorić P, Lolić I. The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia. Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics [Internet]. 2017 [pristupljeno 15.12.2018.];3(1):16-34. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002
IEEE
M. Čižmešija, P. Sorić i I. Lolić, "The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia", Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, vol.3, br. 1, str. 16-34, 2017. [Online]. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002

Sažetak
This paper builds upon the Economist’s R-word (recession) index by forming a Croatian version of a media news-based economic uncertainty measure. Using the web archives of the four major Croatian news portals (Index.hr, Jutarnji list, Večernji list and 24 sata), an extensive database of as much as 531107 news articles is formed. The R-word index is obtained by calculating the monthly share of recession-related articles. This way Croatia is placed among the few rare world countries which have their own version of this index. It is found that the index is a leading indicator of economic activity in Croatia, preceding GDP growth rates by two months. Using rolling window correlations, the authors also prove that economic agents react to uncertainty shocks in the most intensive manner precisely at the onset of an economic crisis, while the correlation decreases in periods of more stable economic growth rates.

Ključne riječi
Business and Consumer Surveys; economic uncertainty; leading indicator; R-word index; recession

Hrčak ID: 183709

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/183709

Posjeta: 164 *