Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.51680/ev.39.1.12
Sectoral lending and value added: The Croatian case
Ante Samodol
orcid.org/0000-0002-6609-2396
; Libertas International University, Zagreb, Croatia
*
Sonja Brlečić Valčić
orcid.org/0000-0002-2704-6725
; University of Zadar, Department of Economics, Zadar, Croatia
* Corresponding author.
Abstract
Purpose: The paper deals with the impact of bank loans to corporations and households on gross value added (GVA) in Croatia. The research covers the period from the second quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2024. The aim of the research is to determine the significance, direction, and strength of the relationship between lending to various economic sectors and households and the development of GVA.
Methodology: This research uses the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model, which enables quantitative analysis of time series with the simultaneous inclusion of exogenous variables that can affect the dependent variable.
Results: The results show that loans to the manufacturing sector and the accommodation and food sector have the strongest positive impact on GVA, while the trade sector has the largest negative impact. Loans to households have a weaker impact, with housing loans having a positive impact and cash loans having a negative impact on GVA.
Conclusion: The results support the idea that the structural orientation of bank lending policies can have an important impact on economic growth, not only through the volume but also through the allocation. This research provides a basis for the implementation of policies aimed at lending to sectors with high growth potential, while controlling consumer debt. This can support long-term sustainable and structurally sound economic growth. Further research can focus on the components of sectoral GVA to see the financial effects on real values of sectoral productivity growth and eliminate the effects of net prices on GVA growth.
Keywords
bank loans; corporations; households; gross value added; Croatia
Hrčak ID:
348496
URI
Publication date:
28.6.2026.
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