Tehnički vjesnik, Vol. 33 No. 6, 2026.
Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20260929003951
Forecast-Informed Hysteretic Routing for Stable Urban Flood Networks
Dong Li
; School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, No. 3 Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing, China
Shunjie Yang
; School of Cyberspace Science and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, No. 3 Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing, China
Gongyun Fu
; China Railway Smart City Research and Development Center, China Railway Liuyuan Group Co., Ltd., No. 36 Zhonghuan West Road, Tianjin Airport Economic Area, Tianjin, China
Dalin Zhang
; School of Cyberspace Science and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, No. 3 Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing, China
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* Dopisni autor.
Sažetak
Urban flood route guidance must anticipate disruption without causing unnecessary route changes. We test whether short-horizon flood forecasts can determine when to replace a currently usable route. Predictive risk-score hysteretic routing (PRH) estimates next-hour segment threshold-crossing risk, generates risk-aware alternatives and retains the current recommendation until a forecast-based release condition is met. The method was developed on four simulated flood events and evaluated with frozen parameters on 38 held-out events in Norfolk, Virginia. PRH produced 8,285 next-hour path threshold crossings, 11.1 per cent fewer than 10 per cent bounded-detour retention, and 11,517 route switches, 23.4 per cent fewer than repeated shortest-path recomputation. Matched controls and ablations attributed this operating point to the interaction of risk-weighted candidates and retention. In a strict trigger-signal replacement, linear extrapolation reduced crossings further but required longer detours, showing that segment-level forecast accuracy alone does not determine route-control performance. The main contribution is a simulation-level decision framework for balancing threshold crossings, route switching and detour cost, rather than an operational route-safety claim.
Ključne riječi
decision support; dynamic routing; hysteresis control; route stability; simulation modelling; urban flooding
Hrčak ID:
353058
URI
Datum izdavanja:
7.11.2026.
Posjeta: 0 *