Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1515/crebss-2017-0002
The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia
Mirjana Čižmešija
orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-7291
; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Petar Sorić
orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-264X
; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Ivana Lolić
orcid.org/0000-0003-3112-7699
; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Sažetak
This paper builds upon the Economist’s R-word (recession) index by forming a Croatian version of a media news-based economic uncertainty measure. Using the web archives of the four major Croatian news portals (Index.hr, Jutarnji list, Večernji list and 24 sata), an extensive database of as much as 531107 news articles is formed. The R-word index is obtained by calculating the monthly share of recession-related articles. This way Croatia is placed among the few rare world countries which have their own version of this index. It is found that the index is a leading indicator of economic activity in Croatia, preceding GDP growth rates by two months. Using rolling window correlations, the authors also prove that economic agents react to uncertainty shocks in the most intensive manner precisely at the onset of an economic crisis, while the correlation decreases in periods of more stable economic growth rates.
Ključne riječi
Business and Consumer Surveys; economic uncertainty; leading indicator; R-word index; recession
Hrčak ID:
183709
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.6.2017.
Posjeta: 1.406 *