Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.21.1.2
Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models
Tea Baldigara
orcid.org/0000-0003-2563-2533
; Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Opatija, Croatia
Maja Mamula
orcid.org/0000-0001-6989-045X
; Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Opatija, Croatia
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving
average model able to capture and explain the patterns and the determinants of German tourism
demand in Croatia.
Design – The present study is based on the Box-Jenkins approach in building a seasonal
autoregressive integrated moving average model intend to describe the behaviour of the German
tourists’ flows to Croatia.
Approach – The proposed model is a seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,3)4 model.
Findings – The diagnostic checking and the performed tests showed that the estimated seasonal
ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,3)4 model is adequate in modelling and analysing the number of German
tourists ‘arrivals to Croatia.
Originality of the paper – This study provides a seasonal ARIMA model helpful to analyse,
understand and forecast German tourists’ flows to Croatia. Such, more detailed and systematic
studies should be considered as starting points of future macroeconomic development strategies,
pricing strategies and tourism sector routing strategies in Croatia, as a predominantly tourism
oriented country.
Keywords
international tourism demand; econometric modelling; seasonal ARIMA models; forecasting; forecasting accuracy
Hrčak ID:
140166
URI
Publication date:
30.5.2015.
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