Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.17818/DIEM/2026/SI5

LOCAL EFFECTS OF ENERGY DECOUPLING IN EU-27 ON LABOR: A SPATIAL INVESTIGATION

Zouhair Ait Benhamou ; Université Le Havre Normandie, EDEHN, France *

* Corresponding author.

Abstract

The final push toward the EU’s 2030 CO_2 target is likely to concentrate employment losses in energy-dependent regions. Using a spatial econometric decomposition on 1,131 NUTS-3 regions (2000–2022), we quantify regional employment exposure to this remaining decarbonization burden by separating two channels: the labor-output and output-CO_2 elasticities. Estimating a Spatial Durbin Model with a 2000 base-year Bartik shift-share instrument, we obtain an employment-CO_2 elasticity of φ=0.169 (SE=0.0025). Labor-output elasticities are statistically indistinguishable across regions, so the vulnerability gap is driven predominantly by sectoral carbon intensity. We report gross employment exposure – not net losses, since green-job creation is not modelled – under two scenarios: a uniform cut (15.5M jobs, 7.3%) and one differentiated by raw CO_2 (19.0M jobs, 8.9%). The estimates offer a quantitative basis for targeting Just Transition Mechanism support toward regions whose exposure exceeds 2% of employment.

Keywords

decarbonization; employment elasticity; NUTS-3; just transition

Hrčak ID:

352139

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/352139

Publication date:

15.10.2026.

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