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https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.28.3.14
Tourism volatility to external shocks
Suzana Herman
; PhD Programme Business Economics in Tourism and Hospitality Industry / Management of Sustainable Development
Abstract
International tourism of today is considered one of the main levers of job creation,
generating income and foreign currency and foreign investment. Over the past few years,
international tourism has been growing steadily, but at the same time this same growth is
threatened by challenges in the form of various external shocks affecting the volatility of
tourism. Volatility is described, according to many authors, as an unpredictable measure
of the intensity of variations. These variations are associated with unpredictable crisis
situations or events commonly referred to as ‘new shocks’ (e.g. terrorism, epidemics,
natural disasters, exchange rate volatility, oil price, political (in)stability, wars, and
various forms of criminal activities). Such global events have a profound impact on a
wide range of political, legal and social dimensions. Tourism is extremely vulnerable
to various external and internal shock e. The appearance of exogenous events in
destinations changes the characteristics of tourism at the destination level, affecting the
tourist demand, but also on the economic situation of the country.
Purpose
Based on the presented so far, it is also possible to define the purpose of the research
of the doctoral dissertation: to analyse the main(exogenous) factors that influence the
volatility of tourism in the form of the number of arrivals and number of overnight stays
in selected countries of the world. Despite the obvious economic benefits it brings,
tourism is exposed to internal and external shocks leading to a decline in activity. The
intensity and duration will depend on the actual and perceived preparedness of the
affected countries and the ability to convince that these countries are safe destinations.
Knowledge of the factors affecting tourist demand is necessarily necessary for all
countries, especially those whose share of tourism in GDP is extremely high. Such
information may be useful for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The aim of the paper were as follows: systematically define and quantifies variables
that can affect the tourism of today (terrorism, health issues, natural disasters, wars,
political (in)stability, exchange rate volatility, oil prices, migration), determine the levels
of volatility of tourism to external shocks, and point out the levels of volatility of tourism
to external shocks, and point out the importance of monitoring phenomena affecting
tourism volatility.
Keywords
tourism; external shocks; econometric modelling; panel analysis
Hrčak ID:
290253
URI
Publication date:
16.9.2022.
Visits: 630 *